Day Seven: Tricks of the Trade

We did it! After seven tedious days, the conclusion for this stock market activity has finally arrived. From moments of elation to times of desperation, this activity has certainly had a volatility all it's own. Here are a few things I have learned:

1). Wait it out. Even though only a week has gone by, I have witnessed plenty of incidents that exhibited the unpredictability of the stock market. One day may seem like the end of the world. Then again, another day may appear impossibly fantastic.  Selling during the latter option would probably be preferable.

2).  Do your homework.  Before investing in any stock, examine its past history.  See if there have been any aberrations lately or any successes.  Surprisingly, a lot can be learned from a few simple searches.  While being based on whimsy could work, it is far from rational.  Knowing what one is investing allows for precautionary steps to be taken.

3).  Delve into different market sectors.  By diversifying, stocks are garnered from a myriad of sources.  If one sector begins to fail, there are other sectors to fall back on.  Also, not only does diversification act as a safety mechanism, but also an opportunity to experience success across the economy.  If earnings rise in a particular sector, it is beneficial to have placements in that sector.

4).  And lastly, have fun.   Putting too much emotional investment into the stock market will inevitably lead to personal hardship.  Even the big shark investors have bad days--we participate in an economy, not an idealistic utopia.  The ability to shrug off losses and to remain optimistic is probably the most important lesson of all.

Day Six: I See the Light (Updated Version)

   Almost a week has gone by, and I am glad to say that I have learned much about the world of investment.  I am now able to determine the economic sector, P/E ratio, and return rate for stocks.  While this acquisition of skills is admirable, there is still a gap of knowledge--how to successfully make money.  Who knew getting rich would be so arduous to achieve?
    As a middle-of-the-pack member of this stock market activity, I have deduced that while it is relatively easy to make "some" profit through safety measures like diversification and stock rationing, it is near impossible to make a lot of profit without taking considerable risk.  Thus far, my purchases have been broad and relatively minute.  This methodology keeps me afloat, but does not permit me the wild stock market success I yearn for.
   Logically, the go-big-or-go-home philosophy has the potential to make me very well off.   But the latter option of that philosophy, the go-home portion, is not very appealing.  As I approach the conclusion of this investment experience, I am proud to say that I have had stability.  While I have not always had the biggest payoff, I have had consistancy.  I'll take the figment of success any day.

Day Five: The Irony of Oracle (Updated Version)

    As a child, you are taught that oracles foresee the future.  In a mythiological context, their ability to presage monumental events grants them quite the advantage in life.  Obviously, if you can discern what the future has in store for you, you can take the proper precautions and reap the benefits. Therefore, my premonition to invest in the technological firm Oracle should prove true.  Guess not.
    In my first analysis of Oracle, the trend line seemed to be beginning to slope upward.  Moreover, the Oracle stock at that time had a high "bullish" rating by economists.  Through individual research, I discovered that Oracle was a growing company and was expected to reach imminent success.  The world seemed to be telligng me to allocate some of buying power into Oracle.
    I processed through the correct steps in trading, but I was burned anyways.  Oracle's rapid plummet is a testament to the unpredictable nature of the stock market.  Apparently, Oracle transmitted a recall on one of its products after I had invested in the company.  Where's an oracle when you need one?

Day Four: Moving Up in the World

It's always a mistake to underestimate those in the middle of the pack. Hanging around the bottom half of the rankings for a while now, I have miraculously jumped up to the top three in the matter of a few mere hours. The only deviation I have made in my portfolio involves increased investment in electrical companies. Obviously, luck has been good to me today (but we can all pretend that my successful status stems from my rocking economic skills). I have kept a few monetary reserves just in case my newfound glory disappears. Slowly, I have also been drifting away from my play-it-safe gambit. Because I now have some inkling on how to conduct trades, I have been buying higher payoff (if slightly more erratic) stocks. I'm excited to see where I end up tomorrow. I'll either be retaining my high ranking or plummeting to my downfall. Considering me, it'll probably be the latter.

Day Three: Oh no!

    Today the stock market showed its ugly side.  The gains I had yesterday were demolished by the losses I incurred today.  Every single trade I purchase flashed dark red-- the color of horrified despair.  Obviously, trying to have a handle on the stock market is a nearl impossible task.

      I have decided to not deviate from my current strategy.  I will wait out this fiscal thunderstorm before deciding to sell.

Day Two: Good So Far

    To my surprise, my second day of investing has actually been successful.   A favorable market, combined with meticulously chosen stock choices, has led to unforeseen large dividends.  My pharmaceutical trades, which I chose "for fun", continue to rake in large profits.  I have dubbed this strange phenomenon of making alot of money as beginner's first luck.
    
      Playing it safe, I have yet to completely utilize all of my buying power.  Now that I have discerned my most profitable trades, I plan to either buy more shares or invest in a correlative industry.  None of my current stocks have plummeted to unfavorable prices, so I will hold on to them and only sell when the future looks bleak.

      Analyzing today's events, I have learned that the ever fluctuating disposition of the business cycle can translate into daily investments.  I expect that at times I will rejoice at gaining profit, and at other times, weep as my stocks seem to self-destruct.  The personaliy traits of tenacity and optimism seem to hold the key to not losing sanity during this project.

The First Day of Investing: Still Learning

    And so begins the journey of stock investment-- an enterprise characterized by its volatility and ambiguity.  While not too much has occurred as of yet, I have started to select my trades.  My primary goal in the initial stages of this project is to diversify, or in other words, acquire a myriad of assets.  By collecting stocks from a variety of industries, I have less probability of experiencing an economic catastrophe if one stock loses most of its value.             
      I have mainly focused on three market facets:  entertainment, food and pharmaceuticals.  With the advent of summer in clear sights, it seemed a smart idea to select the first two markets.  Disney World is likely to be soon inundated with tourists looking for some sun, and in their pursuit of fair weather, will also purchase a copious amount of food.  Thus, I have invested quite a bit in amusement parks and food production companies like Nestle. The choice for pharmaceuticals stems more from whimsy.  I enjoy science and medicine, so I decided to pursue stocks in the drug innovation market for personal, not economically sound, reasons.  I look forward to harvest of my growing portfolio.  It is small as of now, but I have confidence it will expand rapidly.

Effects of Unemployment

       Unprecedented rates of long-term unemployment could threaten the economy's recent gains. Some 5.6 million Americans have been out of work at least six months, 3.9 million of them for a year or more.  Research delineates that the longer a person is out of a job, the less likely they are to find a job.  This concept correlates with the idea of discouraged workers, who eventually stop searching for work after a long period of unemployment.
         By a wide range of measures, the U.S. labor market has over the past two decades lost much of the edge it enjoyed over other developed countries.  Gains in education over the past few decades have rapidly deteriorated due to improved learning institutions in other countries.  Moreover, the labor participation rate is much lower than it has been fir a long time.  These factors point to a labor market that is slowly deviating from the successful template it once was.
         The challenge facing the country now is helping to convalesce the long-term unemployment and configuring new processes of employment enhancement.

Source:
           "Unemployment Scars Likely to Last for Years"
           The Wall Street Journal 2012

A Snapshot of Kodak

This past year Kodak has gone through some serious internal changes.  While it built one of the first digital cameras in 1975, it seems to have augmented the very businesses worsening their plight—smartphones.   

                By 1976, Kodak accounted for 90% of film sales, characterizing the compay as essentially a monopoly.  On the other end of the spectrum, Fujifilm, Kodak’s main competitor, has actually done surprisingly well.  Both companies foresaw their potential demise in the 1980s with the advent of digital photography, a private good, but only Fujifilm responded effectively.

                After spending in excess of $9 billion on 40 companies since 2000, Fujifilm has completely scratched its original business venture with diversification.  For instance, the company launched a series of cosmetics utilizing the additional thousands of pounds of chemical compounds they possessed for printing.  Their sudden ingenuity has now reversed roles, making Fujifilm the main monopolist.

                Unfortunately for Kodak, Kodak acted like a stereotypical change resistant firm and kept its original model of film and digital photography, only to feel the strong whiplash of smartphone success in the late 2000s. Film for Fujifilm went from 60% of its profits in 2000 to basically nothing now.  And because of this, Kodak’s long prosperity seems to be coming to an end.

Source:  “The Last Kodak Moment?”  The Economist

A Medley of Market Structures

            Throughout the United States, a myriad of market structures exist.   For example, the monopolistic competition template is copious in number, while the oligopoly market structure tends to be rarer to find.  Colgate and General Motors serve as excellent examples.

            Colgate has been a successful seller of toothpaste for decades.  Entrenched in a monopolistic competition market, there are many competitors selling a very similar product.  Therefore, while market entry is not that easy, it’s certainly possible and happens often.  A number of brands of toothpaste exist, so to attract customers, advertising is used widely.  The cost of Colgate toothpaste has a slight dependence on competitor’s prices.

            General Motors has long been in the oligopoly known as the automobile industry.  With Ford and Chrysler as well, the three companies share an abundance of market power each, contributing to an atmosphere where a scant number of companies sell the same, if somewhat differentiated, product.   Not enough power, however, to be complete price-setters.    Market entry is heavily blockaded and difficult to overcome.  To appease the volatility of consumer demand, General Motors often users tacit collusion to make fiscal decisions that concur with revenue goals.

            Colgate and General Motors each have interactions unique to their economic system, due to the relative distribution of market power and competitors.  Even so, both have made significant profit through their own unique methodologies, highlighting how having a variety of market structures with one overarching economy is definitely feasible. 

The Shroud over North Korea

           With the death of Kim Jong Il, the former dictator of North Korea, a conspicuous cloud of confusion hovers above the global economy.  Questions concerning whether or not the United States should engage in the “black hole market” have risen incessantly.  Even more, as the succession of Kim Jong-un takes place, uncertainty and ambiguity plagues the lands north of the Korean demilitarized zone.  What’s to happen next?

            Considering the innate enmity Korean officials have towards the United States, fiscal policy does not seem likely to deviate much.  The current communist regime has kept an iron clamp over its own economy, selectively choosing to trade with its exiguous allies.  Moreover, the vast majority of the North Korean population is hardly, if at all, economically involved.  The true monetary power is in the hands of a few, hand-picked city elites, who make decisions on a restricted basis within the city of Pyongyang.   A gargantuan income disparity exists between the top and lower tiers of salary, which inevitably has led to a proliferation of destitution, spurring famine and malnourishment of many.  To say the least, the entire economy is unstable and concentrated narrowly.

            At a quick marginal analysis, the utility of trading with North Korea is minimal.  Given the high elasticity of its market, North Korea could withdraw from trade at the slightest hint of a potential threat.  Careful maneuvering of goods, on top of deft foreign ambassadors, would be needed at all times if the United States should become a trading partner and eliminates current sanctions.    Additionally, the stunted diversity of markets of North Korea hardly holds much benefit.   While an increase of profit for America will most probably occur, its hardly large enough to hold much face value.

            Ultimately, in examination of all external and factors concerning North Korea, trade with North Korea is less than appealing.  A tenuous line of repression is all that barricades the nation from chaos.